Report On Crooked Statistics From The American Cancer Society
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The National Cancer Institute is THE source for information on cancer. This is the group that does much of the public research on cancer. Here is their comment on their budget immediately below. Following that is a different source of data from a critic of government-sponsored research and information about cancer.
How much is NCI requesting for fiscal year 2003?
Our total Fiscal Year 2003 Budget Request is $5,690,000,000. This represents an increase of $1,512,796,000 over the Fiscal Year 2002 President's Budget. (source)
Cancer Statistics 1930-1996
mindfully.org 2000
The American Cancer Society's website graphical data purposefully avoids showing comparable statistics on age-adjusted cancer incidence for similar years (1930 1996) because it would illustrate a steep increase in incidence (the number of new cancer cases recorded) during that period. Instead, they focus on death rates which have no bearing whatsoever on the numbers of people getting cancer to begin with.
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Age-Adjusted Cancer Death Rates,* Males by Site, US, 1930-1996
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Age-Adjusted Cancer Death Rates,* Females by Site, US, 1930-1996
[Karl Note: These links no longer work. The American Cancer Society has obviously reacted to this criticism and removed the data being objected to!]
Mindfully.org believes that prevention is, by far, the more important statistic to be concerned with. This is not to say that curing existing cancers is not of vital importance, but that preventing new cases should be the highest priority.
Probability of Developing Invasive Cancers Over Selected Age Intervals, by Sex, United States, 1994–1996
| Birth to 39 (%) | 40 to 59 (%) | 60 to 79 (%) | Birth to Death (%) | ||
| All sites† | Male |
1.61 (1 in 62) |
8.17 (1 in 12) |
33.65 (1 in 3) |
43.56 (1 in 2) |
| Female |
1.94 (1 in 52) |
9.23 (1 in 11) |
22.27 (1 in 4) |
38.11 (1 in 3) |
|
| Breast | Female |
0.43 (1 in 235) |
4.06 (1 in 25) |
6.88 (1 in 15) |
12.56 (1 in 8) |
| Colon & Rectum | Male |
0.06 (1 in 1,579) |
0.85 (1 in 124) |
3.97 (1 in 29) |
5.64 (1 in 18) |
| Female |
0.05 (1 in 1,947) |
0.67 (1 in 149) |
3.06 (1 in 33) |
5.55 (1 in 18) |
|
| Lung & Bronchus | Male |
0.04 (1 in 2,592) |
1.29 (1 in 78) |
6.35 (1 in 16) |
8.11 (1 in 12) |
| Female |
0.03 (1 in 2,894) |
0.94 ( 1 in 106) |
3.98 (1 in 25) |
5.69 (1 in 18) |
|
| Prostate | Male | Less than 1 in 10,000 |
1.90 (1 in 53) |
13.69 (1 in 7) |
15.91 (1 in 6) |
|
*Of those free of cancer at
beginning of age interval. Based on cancer cases
diagnosed during 1994–1996. The "1 in" statistic
and the inverse of the percentage may not be
equivalent due to rounding.
†Excludes basal and squamous cell skin cancers and in situ carcinomas except urinary bladder. Source: DEVCAN Software, Version 4.0, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, 1973–1996, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute. American Cancer Society, Surveillance Research |
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Estimated New Cancer Cases and Deaths by Sex for All Sites, United States, 2000*
| Estimated New Cases | Estimated Deaths | |||||
| Both Sexes | Male | Female | Both Sexes | Male | Female | |
| All Sites | 1,220,100 | 619,700 | 600,400 | 552,200 | 284,100 | 268,100 |
| Oral cavity & pharynx | 30,200 | 20,200 | 10,000 | 7,800 | 5,100 | 2,700 |
| Tongue | 6,900 | 4,500 | 2,400 | 1,700 | 1,100 | 600 |
| Mouth | 10,900 | 6,500 | 4,400 | 2,300 | 1,300 | 1,000 |
| Pharynx | 8,200 | 5,900 | 2,300 | 2,100 | 1,500 | 600 |
| Other oral cavity | 4,200 | 3,300 | 900 | 1,700 | 1,200 | 500 |
| Digestive system | 226,600 | 117,600 | 109,000 | 129,800 | 69,300 | 60,500 |
| Esophagus | 12,300 | 9,200 | 3,100 | 12,100 | 9,200 | 2,900 |
| Stomach | 21,500 | 13,400 | 8,100 | 13,000 | 7,600 | 5,400 |
| Small intestine | 4,700 | 2,300 | 2,400 | 1,200 | 600 | 600 |
| Colon | 93,800 | 43,400 | 50,400 | 47,700 | 23,100 | 24,600 |
| Rectum | 36,400 | 20,200 | 16,200 | 8,600 | 4,700 | 3,900 |
| Anus, anal canal, & anorectum | 3,400 | 1,400 | 2,000 | 500 | 200 | 300> |
| Liver & intrahepatic bile duct | 15,300 | 10,000 | 5,300 | 13,800 | 8,500 | 5,300 |
| Gallbladder & other biliary | 6,900 | 2,900 | 4,000 | 3,400 | 1,200 | 2,200 |
| Pancreas | 28,300 | 13,700 | 14,600 | 28,200 | 13,700 | 14,500 |
| Other digestive organs | 4,000 | 1,100 | 2,900 | 1,300 | 500 | 800 |
| Respiratory system | 179,400 | 101,500 | 77,900 | 161,900 | 93,100 | 68,800 |
| Larynx | 10,100 | 8,100 | 2,000 | 3,900 | 3,100 | 800 |
| Lung & bronchus | 164,100 | 89,500 | 74,600 | 156,900 | 89,300 | 67,600 |
| Other respiratory organs | 5,200 | 3,900 | 1,300 | 1,100 | 700 | 400 |
| Bones & joints | 2,500 | 1,500 | 1,000 | 1,400 | 800 | 600 |
| Soft tissue (including heart) | 8,100 | 4,300 | 3,800 | 4,600 | 2,200 | 2,400 |
| Skin (excluding basal & squamous) | 56,900 | 34,100 | 22,800 | 9,600 | 6,000 | 3,600 |
| Melanoma-skin | 47,700 | 27,300 | 20,400 | 7,700 | 4,800 | 2,900 |
| Other non-epithelial skin | 9,200 | 6,800 | 2,400 | 1,900 | 1,200 | 700 |
| Breast | 184,200 | 1,400 | 182,800 | 41,200 | 400 | 40,800 |
| Genital system | 265,900 | 188,400 | 77,500 | 59,000 | 32,500 | 26,500 |
| Uterine cervix | 12,800 | — | 12,800 | 4,600 | — | 4,600 |
| Uterine corpus | 36,100 | — | 36,100 | 6,500 | — | 6,500 |
| Ovary | 23,100 | — | 23,100 | 14,000 | — | 14,000 |
| Vulva | 3,400 | — | 3,400 | 800 | — | 800 |
| Vagina & other genital, female | 2,100 | — | 2,100 | 600 | — | 600 |
| Prostate | 180,400 | 180,400 | — | 31,900 | 31,900 | — |
| Testis | 6,900 | 6,900 | — | 300 | 300 | — |
| Penis & other genital, male | 1,100 | 1,100 | — | 300 | 300 | — |
| Urinary system | 86,700 | 58,600 | 28,100 | 24,600 | 15,700 | 8,900 |
| Urinary bladder | 53,200 | 38,300 | 14,900 | 12,200 | 8,100 | 4,100 |
| Kidney & renal pelvis | 31,200 | 18,800 | 12,400 | 11,900 | 7,300 | 4,600 |
| Ureter & other urinary organs | 2,300 | 1,500 | 800 | 500 | 300 | 200 |
| Eye & orbit | 2,200 | 1,200 | 1,000 | 200 | 100 | 100 |
| Brain & other nervous system | 16,500 | 9,500 | 7,000 | 13,000 | 7,100 | 5,900 |
| Endocrine system | 20,200 | 5,600 | 14,600 | 2,100 | 1,000 | 1,100 |
| Thyroid | 18,400 | 4,700 | 13,700 | 1,200 | 500 | 700 |
| Other endocrine | 1,800 | 900 | 900 | 900 | 500 | 400 |
| Lymphoma | 62,300 | 35,900 | 26,400 | 27,500 | 14,400 | 13,100 |
| Hodgkin’s disease | 7,400 | 4,200 | 3,200 | 1,400 | 700 | 700 |
| Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma | 54,900 | 31,700 | 23,200 | 26,100 | 13,700 | 12,400 |
| Multiple myeloma | 13,600 | 7,300 | 6,300 | 11,200 | 5,800 | 5,400 |
| Leukemia | 30,800 | 16,900 | 13,900 | 21,700 | 12,100 | 9,600 |
| Acute lymphocytic leukemia | 3,200 | 1,800 | 1,400 | 1,300 | 700 | 600 |
| Chronic lymphocytic leukemia | 8,100 | 4,600 | 3,500 | 4,800 | 2,800 | 2,000 |
| Acute myeloid leukemia | 9,700 | 4,800 | 4,900 | 7,100 | 3,900 | 3,200 |
| Chronic myeloid leukemia | 4,400 | 2,600 | 1,800 | 2,300 | 1,300 | 1,000 |
| Other leukemia | 5,400 | 3,100 | 2,300 | 6,200 | 3,400 | 2,800 |
| Other & unspecified primary sites | 34,000 | 15,700 | 18,300 | 36,600 | 18,500 | 18,100 |
| *Excludes basal and squamous cell skin cancers and in situ carcinomas except urinary bladder. Carcinoma in situ of the breast accounts for about 42,600 new cases annually, and melanoma in situ accounts for about 28,600 new cases annually. Estimates of new cases are based on incidence rates from the NCI SEER program 1979-1996. | ||||||
Sources of Statistics
Cancer Deaths. The estimated numbers of US cancer deaths are calculated by fitting the numbers of cancer deaths for 1979 through 1997 to a statistical model which forecasts the numbers of deaths that are expected to occur in 2000. The estimated numbers of cancer deaths for each state are calculated similarly, using state level data. For both the US and state estimates, data on the numbers of deaths are obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
We discourage the use of our estimates to track year-to-year changes in cancer deaths because the numbers can vary considerably from year to year, particularly for less common cancers and for smaller states. Mortality rates reported by NCHS are generally more informative statistics to use when tracking cancer mortality trends.
Mortality Rates. Mortality rates or death rates are defined as the number of people per 100,000 dying of a disease during a given year. In this publication, mortality rates are based on counts of cancer deaths compiled by NCHS for 1973 through 1997 and population data from the US Bureau of the Census.
New Cancer Cases. The estimated numbers of new US cancer cases are calculated by estimating the numbers of cancer cases that occurred each year for 1979 through 1996 and fitting these estimates to a statistical model which forecasts the numbers of cases that are expected to occur in 2000. Estimates of the numbers of cancer cases for 1979 through 1996 are used rather than actual case counts because case data are not available for all 50 states. The estimated numbers of cases for 1979 through 1996 are calculated using cancer incidence rates from the regions of the United States included in the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program and population data collected by the US Bureau of the Census.
State case estimates cannot be calculated using the same modeling strategy that we use to calculate state death estimates. Instead, estimates are calculated using cancer deaths forecasted for each state for 2000 and US estimates of new cancer cases and cancer deaths for 2000.
Like the method used to calculate cancer deaths, the methods used to estimate new US and state cases for the upcoming year can produce numbers that vary considerably from year to year, particularly for less common cancers and for smaller states. For this reason, we discourage the use of our estimates to track year-to-year changes in cancer occurrence. Incidence rates reported by SEER are generally more informative statistics to use when tracking cancer incidence trends for the total United States, and rates from state cancer registries are useful for tracking local trends.
Incidence Rates. Incidence rates are defined as the number of people per 100,000 who develop disease during a given time period. For this publication, incidence rates were calculated using data on cancer cases collected by the SEER program and population data collected by the US Bureau of the Census. State incidence rates presented in this publication were originally published in the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries’ publication Cancer Incidence in North America, 1991-1995. Incidence rates for the United States were originally published in the SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1973-1996.
Survival. Five-year relative survival rates are presented in this report for cancer patients diagnosed between 1989 and 1995 and followed through 1996. To adjust for normal life expectancy (factors such as dying of heart disease, accidents, and diseases of old age), these rates are calculated by dividing 5-year survival rates for cancer patients by 5-year survival rates for people in the general population who are similar to the patient group with respect to age, gender, race, and calendar year of observation. All survival statistics presented in this publication were originally published in the SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1973-1996.
Probability of Developing Cancer. Probabilities of developing cancer are calculated using DEVCAN (Probability of DEVeloping CANcer Software) developed by the National Cancer Institute. These probabilities reflect the average experience of people in the United States and do not take into account individual behaviors and risk factors. For example, the estimated 1 man in 1,200 likely to develop lung cancer is a low estimate for smokers and a high estimate for nonsmokers.
Additional Information. More information on the methods used to generate the statistics for this report can be found in the following publications:
A. For information on data collection methods used by the National Center for Health Statistics: National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Statistics of the United States, 1997, Vol II, Mortality, Part A. Washington: Public Health Service. 1999.
B. For information on data collection methods used by the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program: Ries LAG, Kosary CL, Hankey BF, et al. (eds.). SEER Cancer Statistic Review, 1973-1996. National Cancer Institute. Bethesda, MD, 1999 or visit the SEER web site at http://www-seer.ims.nci.nih.gov .
C. For information on the methods used to estimate the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths: Wingo PA, Landis S, Parker S, Bolden S, Heath CW. Using cancer registry and vital statistics data to estimate the number of new cancer cases and deaths in the Unites States for the upcoming year. J Reg Management 1998;25(2):43-51.
D. For information on the methods used to calculate the probability of developing cancer: Feuer EJ, Wun L-M, Boring CC et al. The lifetime risk of developing breast cancer. JNCI 1993; 85:892-897.
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