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Nearly $3 Trillion Dollars in U.S. Health Spending is Projected

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Nearly $3 Trillion Dollars in U.S. Health Spending is Projected

Healthcare spending will top $2.8 trillion in the US by 2011, driving an even larger chunk of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) than previously forecast, government actuaries reported on March 12, 2002.

Spending may reach 17% of GDP by 2011, up from 13.2% in 2000, according to actuaries at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Said another way, annual healthcare spending by 2011 will rise to $9,216 per person in America -- double the amount spent per capita in 2000.

CMS said its new outlook for healthcare spending, updated annually, reflects higher projected growth in Medicare and Medicaid expenditures and more sluggish private healthcare spending.

While prescription-drug spending will continue to grow at double-digit rates, the rate of spending growth is expected to slow to 10.1% for 2011 from 17.3% for 2000. Actuaries say the slowdown reflects cost-cutting tactics, such as tiered co-payments, and the introduction of fewer blockbuster drugs.

"Still, we project that between 2001 - 2011 period, drug spending growth will exceed total health spending growth by almost five percentage points per year on average," according to Stephen Heffler and colleagues from CMS's Office of the Actuary. Drug spending will account for 14.7% of total health expenditures by 2011, compared with 9.4% in 2000, they said.

Public-health spending is expected to rise more sharply than previously projected largely due to the effect of higher provider payments and new benefits mandated as part of the 2000 Medicare, Medicaid and SCHIP Benefits Improvement and Protection Act. Medicare spending may rise 9.5% in 2001, outpacing the rate of growth projected last year by 2.5% points.

Growth in private-sector spending is expected to be more sluggish than last year's projections because of a weaker-than-anticipated outlook for the nation's economy. Still, actuaries are predicting 8.9% growth for 2001 and 9.4% for 2002, compared with 6.9% for 2000.

Health Affairs March/April 2002;21:207-217


DR. MERCOLA'S COMMENT:

For the first time in almost a decade, according to federal health economists, health expenditures outpaced the growth of the economy. That is one amazing statement.

The US currently spends about 1.5 trillion dollars for healthcare, and the projections are that it will double in less than ten years.

Like the late Senator Everett Dirksen from Illinois was fond of saying when he was referring to the Defense Department budget, a billion dollars here, a billion dollars there and before you know it you are talking real money.

Well we are talking a lot more than a few billion dollars. How about something like a nearly 1.5 trillion dollars, an amount that is even beyond Bill Gates level.

The sad tragedy is that we are spending all of this money on disease management focused on drugs and surgery and our return on this investment is profoundly poor.

Retail pharmacies filled 3 billion prescriptions in 2000.

We are not achieving the high levels of health that we could be. More and more people do not have the energy they need to get through the day while millions of others are suffering with painful crippling diseases because they have violated basic health principles.

Many of their choices were made out of ignorance and it is my vision and passion to make a dent in this mess. I hope to have many of you help with the process as this web site becomes a major force for good and the alleviation of disease and suffering.


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Health Spending Growing Faster Than U.S. Economy

For the first time in almost a decade, federal health economists reported January 8, health expenditures outpaced the growth of the economy.

Spending rose 6.9% from 1999 to 2000, to $1.3 trillion, while the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.5%. This was the third year of accelerating growth in health spending.

With the economy in a downturn, health costs are likely to continue to grow faster than the GDP at least for the next few years.

The shift may herald the end of several years of relatively free-wheeling spending, when employers offered less restrictive, more costly insurance plans, and hospitals and physicians refused to accept onerous managed care discounts, said the economists.

Instead, in 2001, insurers will likely charge higher premiums and employers will ask consumers to pay a higher share of their health costs.

From 1999 to 2000, there was a 1.2% increase in the rise in health care spending. Spending grew 5.7% in 1999, but by 6.9% in 2000. While this may sound paltry, this is the largest positive change in the growth rate since 1993.

Most of the increase in private and public spending for 2000 -- 24% of the dollar share -- was for hospitals. Hospital costs grew 5.1% in 2000 to $412 billion. The economists said that spending has grown partly because facilities, merged together into ever-larger bargaining units, are extracting higher payments from insurers, particularly from managed care. Hospital labor costs have also increased.

Prescription drug spending accounted for 9.4% of the increase. But the cost of drugs rose by 17.3% in 2000, the sixth consecutive year of double-digit growth, according to the authors. Consumers are being hit especially hard, paying more out-of-pocket with each passing year. The economists said that higher spending on outpatient drugs is being fueled by direct-to-consumer advertising, more new drugs on the market and increased coverage of pharmaceuticals by insurers.

Health Affairs January/February 2002

 


DR. MERCOLA'S COMMENT:

Like the late Senator Everett Dirksen from Illinois was fond of saying when he was referring to the Defense Department budget, a billion dollars here, a billion dollars there and before you know it you are talking real money.

Well we are talking a lot more than a few billion dollars. How about something like a nearly 1.5 trillion dollars, an amount that is even beyond Bill Gates level.

Amazingly 25% of this went to pay for hospital care.

The sad tragedy is that we are spending all of this money on disease management focused on drugs and surgery and our return on this investment is profoundly poor.

We are not achieving high levels of health that we could be. More and more people do not have the energy they need to get through the day while millions of others are suffering with painful crippling diseases because they have violated basic health principles.

Many of their choices were made out of ignorance and it is my vision and passion to make a dent in this mess and I hope to have many of you help with the process as this web site becomes a major force for good and the alleviation of disease and suffering.

 

 

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Prescription Drug Sales Increased By Nearly 20% Last Year in US

Retail prescription drug spending in the US increased for the fifth straight year in 2000, primarily reflecting higher sales of a relatively small number of drugs.
 

As an aging population coped with arthritis, diabetes and high cholesterol, spending on prescription drugs shot up nearly 20 percent last year, to $132 billion.
 

Two dozen products accounted for half the increase, which occurred not just because drugs are becoming more expensive but because doctors are writing many more prescriptions for higher-cost drugs, the study said.

The study was issued today by the National Institute for Health Care Management Foundation, a nonprofit, nonpartisan group that conducts research on health care issues.
 

The trend will probably increase political pressure for new government benefits to help elderly people buy prescription drugs, but it also makes clear how costly such benefits could be. President Bush has proposed spending $153 billion on drug benefits and unspecified "Medicare reforms" over the next 10 years, but Democrats say that sum is grossly inadequate, and the foundation's study may provide new ammunition to both sides.
 

The $21 billion increase in spending "was attributable, in large measure, to the rising volume of prescriptions for the top-selling drugs," the study said. Researchers said more aggressive marketing by drug companies contributed to the growth.
 

The top sellers include Vioxx, an arthritis drug made by Merck & Company; Lipitor, a cholesterol reducer sold by Pfizer; Prevacid, an ulcer drug sold by Tap Pharmaceuticals; Celebrex, an arthritis medicine marketed by Pharmacia and Pfizer, and Glucophage, a diabetes drug made by Bristol-Myers Squibb.

The increase in sales of these five drugs alone accounted for one-fifth of the entire increase in sales of prescription drugs last year, the study said.
 

The rate of increase in drug spending was about the same last year as in 1999, so the foundation estimates that drug spending rose 40 percent from 1998 to 2000.
 

That growth has pushed up health insurance premiums for individuals and families. It has contributed to increases in the cost of health benefits provided by employers. And it has driven up the cost of Medicaid, the federal-state program for the poor.
 

The report identified three factors contributing to the increase in retail spending on prescription drugs last year. It said that 42 percent was attributable to an increase in the number of prescriptions written by doctors and filled by pharmacies.
 

At the same time, it said, a shift toward the use of more expensive drugs accounted for 36 percent of the overall increase in spending, while price increases accounted for the remaining 22 percent.
 

The 50 top-selling medicines accounted for 30 percent of all prescriptions last year, and these medications cost almost twice as much as other drugs, the report said. The average price for a prescription for one of the top 50 drugs was $67, while the average for other drugs was $36, it said.
 

Retail pharmacies filled 3 billion prescriptions last year, an increase of over 7 percent over the 2.7 billion filled in 1999, the study said. But the 50 best-selling drugs posted a much sharper increase, as the number of prescriptions rose over 18 percent, to 867 million, from 731 million.
 

The government recently predicted that drug spending would rise an average of 12 percent a year in the coming decade, as scientists unlock secrets of the human genome, the baby boom generation ages and the nation pours huge sums into biomedical research, filling the pipeline with potentially useful new drugs.
 

Drug companies say they are developing more than 350 medicines to fight cancer and more than 120 to treat or prevent heart disease and stroke.
 

Antidepressants were the best- selling category of prescription medicines last year, as they were in 1999. Retail sales of antidepressants totaled over $10 billion in 2000, up 21 percent from the previous year.
 

The average price for a prescription of antidepressants was $68 last year, up from $63 in 1999.
 

The report said this change "reflects a rise in the price of individual drugs, but also the fact that pharmacies are dispensing more of the more expensive antidepressants such as Paxil, Celexa and Wellbutrin." These drugs, it said, are 50 percent to 75 percent more expensive than other antidepressants.
 

Comparing the number of prescriptions filled in each of the last two years, the study found that retail pharmacies dispensed 42 percent more Celebrex, 32 percent more Lipitor, 31 percent more Prevacid, 30 percent more Viagra (for impotence), 71 percent more Enbrel (for rheumatoid arthritis) and 74 percent more Singulair (for asthma).
 

Nancy Chockley, president of the National Institute for Health Care Management Foundation, said: "The recent rise in pharmaceutical spending is due, in large measure, to the growth in sales of a relatively small number of medicines. Most of these drugs are the blockbusters many Americans have come to know by name and see advertised more and more."
 

More aggressive marketing of prescription drugs to consumers and doctors has stimulated a major increase in sales, in part because consumers learn of new remedies and ask their doctors for prescriptions, researchers said. Better insurance coverage for drugs has also contributed to the trend, by making consumers somewhat less sensitive to drug prices.
 

Nineteen drugs had retail sales exceeding $1 billion last year, up from 15 such drugs in 1999. Leading the list of top sellers was Prilosec, the antiulcer drug sold by AstraZeneca, with sales of $4 billion last year, up from $3.6 billion in 1999.
 

While total sales of prescription drugs rose 19 percent last year, sales of the 50 best-selling drugs rose 30 percent, to $58 billion, from $45 billion in 1999.
 

Drugs to treat ulcers, heartburn and other gastrointestinal problems were second to antidepressants in overall sales. Retail sales of these medicines totaled $9.5 billion last year, up 20 percent from 1999. Sales of Prilosec rose 12.4 percent, to $4 billion last year, while sales of its main competitor, Prevacid, increased 37 percent, to $3 billion.
 

The study was based on data from Scott-Levin Inc., a health care market research company in Newtown, Pa. The figures do not include mail- order sales. But the report said mail- order sales of prescription drugs totaled $16 billion last year, up 26 percent from $12.7 billion in 1999.
 

NewYork Times May 8, 2001
 

National Institute for Health Care Management Research and Educational Foundation May 11, 2001
 


DR. MERCOLA'S COMMENT:

Isn't this just a prescription for disaster? The drug companies are having their heyday now. They are not stupid by any stretch of the imagination. They have hired some of the most effective marketing people in the country to promote their products.
 

Additionally, the increased media exposure through direct advertisments on television to consumers is making a huge impact.
 

However, folks the emperor has no clothes, and the emperor knows it. The traditional paradigm is fatally flawed. It does NOT work for any chronic illness. The drug/surgery model is an unmitigated disaster that has greatly contributed to pharmaceutical profits at the expense of the health of our country.
 

The truth will come out. I hope to facilitate that with this site. You can help by passing this newsletter to as many people as you know, so they will have PRACTICAL alternatives to this drug based model that work and will not accelerate the death rate.
 

Believe me folks, the drug companies are NOT your friends. They could care less about your health. Their main concern is corporate profits. If you don't believe me carefully review the links below.

 

 

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